李开复：未来十年物联网将超人联网一百倍；我们的设备将知道我们想要什么；大部分工作可被机器取代……

【IT时代网、IT时代周刊编者按】1983 年，李开复正在做一个艰难的决定——到底攻读哪所大学？可是当他来到卡内基梅隆大学时，看到教授竟然在教机器们说话、聆听、观看甚至走路，这一切犹如科幻，也让他下定了最后的决心。近日，李开复在卡内基梅隆计算机科学学院毕业典礼上发表了演讲，回首了自己在这所大学过往的点滴，并预测未来十年“物联网”将超出“人联网”一百倍；我们的设备和云将知道我们想要什么；大部分人类工作可被机器取代……以下是李开复演讲中英文对照版：

首先向今年的毕业生们表示祝贺!也非常感谢母校邀请我见证并分享你们一生中如此重要的时刻。对于母校在众多比我优秀的校友中，选择授予我荣誉博士，我深表荣幸。

我曾在四年半的时间内获得了我人生的第一个博士学位。而这个即将获得的第二个博士学位我却用了长达27年的时间 。你们的课程一定越来越难了!

我还记得1983年第一次走进卡内基梅隆大学时的情形，当时我正在做一个“艰难的决定”——到底攻读哪所大学? 当时的我就像是首次进入糖果店里的孩子：卡内基梅隆大学的教授当时居然在教机器们说话、聆听、观看和走路(其实是单脚跳)。但是真正让我决定来读卡梅的是这样一台神器：一台可以联接到互联网的可乐机——它居然可以确保源源不断地供给咖啡因给我们这些极客们!

当时是1983年，这对于我而言就像是科幻。但如今再回首往事，当初这些技术仅仅还处于初期发展的萌芽阶段。而32年后的今天，当时的想想和科幻正在一步步变成现实。今天，你们是天选之子，你们这一代人将运用这些技术造福人类。

未来十年，“物联网”将超出“人联网”一百倍。如果你仔细想想，你个人可能只有一百个有意义的“物”，这意味着将来几乎世界上每一件能够想到的“事物”都会接入互联网。那么这么一个无所不在的“物联网”将会被用来增强人类，还是监控人类?细思恐极，而这一切将取决于你们。

未来十年，我们的设备和云将知道我们想要什么，甚至这一切会发生在我们自身意识到这种需求之前。而不是局限在当前的Google Now能告诉我们餐馆和交通等信息，它将能告诉我们“我在会议上应该说些什么?”，或者是“我应该怎样邂逅那位坐在酒吧的女孩?”当计算机助手变得比我们还聪明，我们究竟是被解放，还是被边缘化?未来的结果取决于你们。

未来十年，大部分人类工作可被机器取代。机器将取代工厂工人、司机、护士、会计、律师助手、教师，或者其他带“助理”、“代理”或“经纪”等字样的一系列职位。甚至是部分医生、律师和教授也将部分地被机器取代。(对不起现场的教授们)这些机器将帮助我们创造世界上的大部分财富，解放我们的时间。我们将变得更具创造性并且找到人类的命运?还是成为这些机器的宠物?这一切也将取决于你们。

你们正是把科幻小说一步步变成工程现实的这一代人。或许，很多毕业典礼演讲中都会有这样的表述“你们是最关键的一代人”，但是今天，我认为确实如此!

毋庸置疑，你们选对了学校。在培养计算机科学家或工程师方面，没有哪一所大学比卡内基梅隆大学更出色，这也是这所学校毕业生的薪水雄冠全球的原因。我曾在苹果、谷歌和微软工作时雇佣很多学校的毕业生，我可以坦诚的告诉大家：你们，卡内基梅隆大学的毕业生，你们是最好的，没有之一!

此时你可能会认为成功将唾手可得，因为你们从最好的大学毕业，即将进入最令人兴奋的领域，尤其是在你们年富力强的人生阶段。

李开复被授予卡内基梅隆大学荣誉商业管理博士学位

没错，你们能力的确强大，但不要忘记一句伟大的哲学家……哦，是蜘蛛侠(Spiderman)的那句名言：“能力越强，责任越大”。

你们有责任把时间花在那些真正困难的问题上。而不要把时间浪费在机器未来能做的事情上，也不要把才华浪费在重复学校所学的基础知识，更不要接受一份没有挑战的工作。勇于冒险，孜孜以求，以“成为某个特殊又有用领域的最顶尖人才”为目标，为己任。

你们有责任做出明智选择。在技术的选择上，要致力于能把世界变得更美好的技术，而不能仅仅局限于先进或很酷。在工作的选择上，要选择能拯救生命的工作，而不是破坏生命的工作;要选择强化人类的工作，而不是取代人类的工作。选老板时，要选择有大爱之人，而不是贪婪小人;要选择想帮助世界的善人，而不是想征服世界的戾气之人。

你们有责任预见和阻止技术成为伤害人类的武器，防止科幻小说中常见的悲剧结局发生。尼克·伯斯托姆(Nick Bostrom)在《超级智能》(Superintelligence)一书中称，“随着机器越来越智能，任何沾沾自喜都是不合时宜的。作为技术专家，你将面临一次有史以来最艰难的考试。你必须保持战战兢兢的最佳状态进入考场。考试过关则实现人类梦想，考试失败则毁灭人类未来。”

最后，我想用亚瑟·克拉克(Arthur Clarke，英国科幻小说家)说过的一句话，也是我最喜欢的科幻名言来结束这次演讲：任何真正的高科技都与魔法无异。

2015届的毕业生，祝贺你们，你们将梦想成真，开创魔法般的绚烂未来!谢谢!

From Science Fiction to Engineering Reality

Kai-Fu Lee

May 17, 2015

Commencement speech delivered at CMU School of Computer Science

First, congratulations to the graduates form the CMU School of Computer Science! I'm deeply honored and grateful that you have invited me to be a part of this seminal moment in your lives. I’m honored and humbled that among many more accomplished SCS graduates, I was chosen to receive an honorary degree this year.

I received my first Ph.D. in four and a half years. This second Ph.D. took 27 years. This program must be getting a lot tougher!

I remember coming to CMU for the first time in 1983, when I was trying to decide what grad school to go to.I was like a kid in the candy store. CMU researchers were teaching machines to talk, listen, see, and walk … I mean hop. And I decided to attend CMU after I saw the machine of my dreams: a coke machine connected to the Internet, to ensure that we had an infinite supply of caffeine.

In 1983, this all seemed like science fiction to me. But now looking back, those technologies were just in their infancy. In 2015, 32 years later today, science fiction is about to become engineering reality. And you are the chosen ones to use them to make the world a better place.

In the next 10 years,the Internet of things will outnumber the Internet of people by two orders of magnitude. If you think about it, you probably only own a hundred meaningful things. So that means virtually every thinkable thing will be connected to the Internet. Will they be used as human amplification or human surveillance? That will be up to you.

In the next 10 years, our devices and the cloud will usually know what we want before we know it, and better than we know it. Not just Google Now telling you about restaurant and transportation. But also questions like "What should I say at the meeting?" or "How should I approach this girl at the bar?” With computer assistants getting smarter than us, will we be liberated or marginalized? That will be up to you.

In the next 10 years, most human jobs will be doable by machines. Machines will replace factory workers, drivers, nurses, accountants, any job that has the word "assistant" or "agent" or "broker" in it. And even some doctors, lawyers, and professors will be partially replaced by machines. (sorry professors sitting behind me) These machines will help us produce most of the world's wealth, freeing much of our time. Will we become creative and find mankind’s destiny, or become mindless pets of these machines? That will be up to you.

You are the generation that will make science fiction into engineering reality. Many commencement speech talks about "you are the generation that matters…". But in your case, it is true!

And undoubtedly, you've chosen the right school. There is no better school than CMU to train you to be a computer scientist or engineer. That's why this school's graduates are the highest paid graduates on the planet. I've hired for Apple, Google, MS — I can tell you: you, the CMU graduates, are not "one of the best". You are THE best.

So you might think you've got it made! You are graduating from the best school, and entering the most exciting field, at a time when you possess the power of youth and productivity.

Yes you have the power. But please remember what the world's greatest philosopher … Spiderman said: "with great power comes great responsibility."

You have a responsibility to work on the hard problems. Don't waste your time doing what machines will be able to do. Don't waste your talent repeating just what you learned at school. Don’t accept a job that doesn’t challenge you. Take risks and vigorously learn, so that you can become the very best in something very specific and very useful.

You have a responsibility to choose wisely. Don't just work on technologies that are advanced and cool, work on technologies make the world a better place. Choose jobs that save lives, not destroy them. Choose jobs that empower people, not displace them. Choose to work for CEOs who has more compassion than greed, who cares more about world peace than world domination.

You have a responsibility to foresee and prevent the dangers of technology and prevent the dystopian endings often found in science fiction. Nick Bostrom said in his book "Superintelligence", "As machines gain superintelligence, any feeling of gee-whiz exhilaration would be out of place. You need to have a bitter determination to be the best that you can be, much as you are preparing for a difficult exam that will either realize your dreams or obliterate them."

I want to close with my favorite science fiction quote from Arthur Clarke: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Graduates: Congratulations, you will realize your dreams, and make magic happen! Thank you!

【IT时代网、IT时代周刊编后】每个手机都有事件提醒功能，当人类自己还没想到自己的这个需求时，设备已经事先替你想到了，当设备越来越智能，肯定会提高人们的办事效率，但一些问题也会随之而来，关于人工智能的迅猛发展会不会危及到人类社会安全已经引发了业内很多讨论，未来的发展也是众说纷纭，但无论如何希望最终不要像电影《机械姬》里那个百万富翁一样，最后却被自己一手创造的人工智能机器人所杀。【责任编辑/郑希】

来源：创新工场

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